As 2026 approaches, Australia’s housing market is entering a new phase of the growth cycle. Multiple structural forces are converging to set the stage for continued price rises across many markets, with Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane and Darwin emerging as standout performers.
Despite economic headwinds over the past year, demand remains elevated, supply remains tightly constrained, and new construction continues to lag the pace required to meet Australia’s growing population. For both seasoned investors and those preparing to enter the market, now is the time to understand the trends shaping 2026 and develop strategies to take advantage of the new upswing.
Why Property Prices are expected to Continue Rising in 2026
Persistently Low Property Listings and Above-Average Demand
- Property sales remain resilient even amid higher interest rates.
- Listings are near record lows for this time of year nationwide.
- Newly built supply is not keeping up, with:
-
- Dwelling commencements 10% below decade averages
-
- Completions 16% below decade averages
This demand supply imbalance is expected to continue well into 2026, maintaining upward pressure on values.
Construction Costs Continue to Climb
Residential construction costs have risen sharply over the past five years.
- The Cordell Construction Cost Index recorded a 0.6% rise in the September quarter alone, marking 31% cumulative growth over five years.
Rising building costs reduce the pipeline of new supply while increasing replacement values, reinforcing growth in established property prices.
Forecasts from Independent Research Houses Align with inSynergy Outlook
Multiple national research bodies have released 2026 forecasts closely aligned with our projections.
SQM Research Forecasts for 2026
SQM Research’s Boom & Bust 2026 Report indicates that national prices are expected to climb between 6 to 10% under the baseline scenario.
Cities forecast to outperform include:
- Adelaide: +10 to 14%
- Perth: +12 to 16%
- Brisbane: +10 to 15%
- Darwin: +12 to 16%
Meanwhile Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra are expected to grow at a more moderate 3 to 7% due to comparatively higher supply levels.
SQM modelled four scenarios incorporating economic conditions, interest rate movements and inflation. Under the most optimistic “Economic Rebound” scenario, price growth reaches as high as +21% in Perth and +18% in Brisbane, Darwin and Adelaide.
Domain Forecasts: All Capitals Expected to Reach New Highs
Domain’s 2026 outlook also points to a strong year for most capitals:
- Sydney: +7% (median approaching $1.92m)
- Melbourne: +6%
- Brisbane units: +7%
Domain notes several key drivers accelerating activity:
- The First Home Guarantee Scheme allowing entry with a 5% deposit and no LMI
- 75 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2025
- Modest real wage increases improving household purchasing power
inSynergy Demand and Supply Conditions: December 2025 Snapshot
Our internal modelling shows the strongest market conditions in:
Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin
All four markets currently exhibit:
- Demand significantly above long-term trends
- Supply well below historical averages
- Vacancy rates at historic lows
- Rental yields above long-term trends
Examples include:
- Brisbane: Demand 28% above trend; supply 34% below; vacancy 1% vs 2.4% long-term
- Perth: Demand 59% above; supply 38% below; vacancy 0.7% vs 3.1% long-term
- Adelaide: Demand 21% above; supply 41% below; vacancy 0.8% vs 2% long-term
- Darwin: Demand 38% above; supply 42% below; vacancy 0.5% vs 3.9% long-term
These indicators point to strong growth predictions across all four cities.
By contrast:
- Sydney shows steady growth with demand and supply roughly balanced.
- Melbourne shows strong demand but increased supply, leading to steady rather than sharp growth.
- Hobart and Canberra are categorised as sluggish due to weak demand relative to supply.
Key Structural Trends Supporting 2026 Growth
Beyond individual city performance, several national structural factors will continue to influence the market.
A. Declining National Listings
Total listings are down 23% since 2020, with some cities experiencing dramatic declines:
-
Brisbane: –40%
-
Adelaide: –50%
-
Perth: –44%
-
Darwin: –42%
B. Population-Driven Demand
Demand remains well above trend in several high-growth cities:
-
Perth: +59%
-
Brisbane: +28%
-
Adelaide: +21%
-
Darwin: +28%
C. Supportive Policy Settings
Schemes such as the First Home Guarantee and ongoing infrastructure investment are adding further upward pressure to demand, particularly in the more affordable markets.
Structural Trends Supporting the 2026 Upswing
There are also several broader forces shaping next year’s landscape:
National Listings Contraction
Total property listings have fallen 23% since 2020, with sharper declines in:
- Brisbane: -40%
- Adelaide: -50%
- Perth: -44%
- Darwin: -42%
Population Surges Driving Demand
Population-driven demand remains elevated:
- Perth: +59% above trend
- Brisbane: +28% above trend
- Adelaide: +21% above trend
- Darwin: +28% above trend
Policy Tailwinds
Government schemes and infrastructure spending are adding upward pressure, particularly in affordable segments.
Which Markets Offer the Best Opportunities in 2026?
According to our research, the markets best positioned for solid growth are:
- Adelaide
- Perth
- Brisbane
- Darwin
Each market benefits from the optimal combination of:
- High demand
- Limited supply
- Low vacancy rates
- Strong local economic conditions
- Ongoing infrastructure investment
Melbourne is also a market to watch. Thanks to its relative affordability and status as a national economic powerhouse, we anticipate emerging opportunities as its lower-priced stock is absorbed.
What This Means for Property Investors
The data is clear: 2026 will be a year of opportunity for strategic, well-informed investors. Key takeaways include:
- Demand and supply imbalances will continue to push prices higher.
- The construction pipeline is insufficient to meet population growth.
- Boom markets are already showing strong momentum heading into January.
- National research bodies are aligned in their outlook for continued value growth.
For investors, the most important step now is to ensure your strategy is aligned with these market conditions. This may involve:
- Leveraging equity in existing properties
- Entering high-growth interstate markets before they accelerate further
- Using advanced finance structuring to improve borrowing capacity
- Positioning early before demand intensifies in Q1 2026
Looking Ahead
With the new year fast approaching, the window to capitalise on the early phase of the next growth cycle is narrowing. Our insights highlight that Australia’s property landscape is primed for strong performance, driven by a rare alignment of economic factors, structural undersupply and demographic demand.
Whether you are planning your first investment or expanding an existing portfolio, now is the time to position yourself to benefit from what 2026 is set to deliver.